Impact of non-state armed groups on state-society relations in Ethiopia

Abstract

In most contemporary armed conflicts, at least one non-state armed group (NSAG) is engaged in combat with state forces and other NSAGs, often within the boundaries of states. Both state and non-state actors frequently challenge state-society relations. Since 2018, Ethiopia's political landscape has been shaped by ongoing armed conflict, a decline in the state’s monopoly on violence and challenges to state-society relations. The impact of non-state armed actors, such as the Tigray Defense Force (TDF), the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), and the Amhara Fano, on the legitimacy of the Ethiopian state and public trust in its governance since 2018 is the focus of the study. The study adopted qualitative methodology with case study as a design. Secondary data and primary data from interviews were collected and analyzed. The results reveal that these groups effectively mobilized their supporters around ethnic identities and eroded state authority and deepened societal division. The state's capacity, particularly in promoting sovereignty, has been significantly weakened. Popular sovereignty has been undermined, especially with the suspension of local elections, and the majority of territories are now controlled by NSAG. Moreover, the state has been unable to provide essential public services, leading to a decline in public trust, which signals a fragile political reality. To solve Ethiopia’s crises, the government must prioritize inclusive dialogue, decentralization of power, and transparent investigations into rights abuses to restore trust and reduce marginalization. International mediation and support for local governance are vital to foster accountability, reconciliation, and lasting peace.

Keywords: Non-state armed groups, state-society relations, legitimacy