Dealing with non-state armed groups for regional stabilization: A focus on Al-Shabaab

Abstract

Non-state armed groups, exemplified by Al-Shabaab in Somalia, continue to pose a profound threat to both regional and global security, with the group’s resilience and adaptability undermining conventional military and counterterrorism responses. Despite ongoing efforts – including military operations, counterterrorism initiatives, and attempts to address underlying drivers – Al-Shabaab has maintained its operational capacity, exploiting governance vacuums and leveraging local grievances to sustain influence and territorial control. This article adopts a multifaceted theoretical lens, drawing on realism, institutionalism, and constructivism, to analyze the complex interplay of political, social, and economic factors that perpetuate Al-Shabaab’s role as a destabilizing force. Methodologically, the study employs a qualitative approach, integrating empirical evidence with theoretical insights to provide a nuanced understanding of the group’s persistence. Key findings indicate that strategies narrowly focused on military or security measures have yielded only limited and often temporary gains, while occasionally exacerbating local tensions and instability. For policymakers, the study underscores the critical importance of prioritizing dialogue, negotiation, and the development of inclusive, transparent governance structures in Somalia. Sustainable progress against Al-Shabaab, the findings suggest, requires a holistic and adaptable strategy that is deeply informed by local context and the root causes of conflict, offering actionable guidance for national and international actors seeking to promote lasting stability in the Horn of Africa.

Keywords: Al-Shabaab, Dealing with armed groups, Non-state armed groups, Regional stabilization, Somalia