Scenario Planning as a Management Tool for Sustainable Aquaculture

Abstract

Aquaculture continues to be the fastest-growing food producing sector in the world. As the world’s human

population continues to expand beyond 7 billion, the reliance on aquaculture products as a cheap source of protein continues to increase. However, over the years various aspects of this sector have come under scrutiny due  to  the  negative  impacts  on  the  aquatic  environment  and  more  importantly  the  sustainability  of  the aquaculture industry itself with respect to environmental issues and the utilisation of resources. Scenarios are a powerful way to expose the thinking around issues of mutual concern and to explore ways of facing them. The overall impact of scenario planning is a function of how deep they are able to penetrate the thinking of researchers, governments and policy makers to critically consider what choices exist for issues of common concern. The present paper addresses the case of the aquaculture industry as a whole. The development of scenarios on the future of aquaculture is a paramount if the socio-economic, environmental and ecological impacts of aquaculture are to be ameliorated and more importantly, to focus aquaculture on the path of sustainability. The methodology applied for the study was, the principles of scenario planning, namely thinking creatively about possible complex and uncertain futures by considering a variety of possible futures uncertainties in a system rather than focus on the accurate prediction of a single outcome. The aim of the study was to create scenarios on the internal driving forces that could shape the aquaculture practices and direct it on the path of sustainability and four Scenarios were created.