Extreme Rainfall Assessment using Global Climate Models over the Greater Horn of Africa

George Otien; Franklin Opijah; Artan Guleid; Geoffrey Sabiiti; Ouma Jully; Laban Ogallo; Evans Wabwire; Onyango Augustine

George Otien University of Nairobi, Kenya; IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), Kenya; Maseno University, Kenya;
Franklin Opijah University of Nairobi
Artan Guleid GAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), Kenya
Geoffrey Sabiiti GAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), Kenya
Ouma Jully niversity of Nairobi, Kenya and IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), Kenya
Laban Ogallo GAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), Kenya
Evans Wabwire Catholic University of East Africa (CUEA), Kenya
Onyango Augustine enya Meteorological Society, Kenya

Keywords: Climate Extremes, El NiÃ±o Southern Oscillations, Model physics, Equatorial Sector

Abstract

The October to December (OND) is a major rainfall season over the Greater Horn of Africa(GHA) with strong El NiÃ±o Southern Oscillations (ENSO) signals and high rainfall variabilityleading to drought and floods. One of the major efforts to address these climate extremechallenges is the use of the Global Producing Centers (GPCs) models for seasonal forecasting.These extremes can be studied better by the use of individual models than ensemble forearly warning and preparedness. This paper focuses on the evaluation of the eight individualmodels for seasonal rainfall forecasting over this region. The OND season is considered becauseit is a major season which exhibits high rainfall variability in the region. Gridded observationand model outputs from 1983 to 2001 were used and the methodologies employedinclude; regression analysis, correlation and error analysis techniques.